I am aware that the Treasury
estimates are open to many criticisms, which have been brilliantly
stated by Professor Kettle in his handbook on "Home Rule Finance,"[73]
but for our present purposes we are bound to accept these figures.
What do they show? In the first place, they fully bear out the forecast
of the Financial Relations Commission that the position of Ireland
under the Act of Union would become steadily worse. We have probably
not yet reached the bottom of the hill. Ireland is so poor that each
new Act for the relief of poverty increases the disproportion between
the expenditure of Great Britain and Ireland. There is no way out of
that vicious circle. If England were to increase Irish taxation she
would simply increase the poverty which she has to relieve. During the
last fifty years, in fact, the British Government has had to give back
in some form of relief an equivalent for almost every increase of
taxation enforced upon Ireland. If Ireland cannot pay, England must
pay. That means that unless Home Rule is given during the next twenty
years Ireland will become an increasingly heavy charge upon Great
Britain.
In face of these facts, it is clear that Great Britain will be wise to
"cut the loss.
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